A severe sovereign debt crisis triggers aggressive fiscal measures
Authors: G.Hardouvelis, P.Monokroussos, T.Anastasatos, T.Stamatiou, T.Sampaniotis
Publication: Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank Research, March 2010
Key points:
- The Greek economy contracted by 2.0% in 2009, as the positive contribution from net exports softened the large decline in domestic aggregate demand.
- The recession is growing stronger in 2010: A further 2.8% decline in real GDP growth constitutes a feasible scenario, with the balance of risks skewed to the downside.
- The recession is likely to end by the second half of 2011 Annual average consumer price inflation is expected to reach 2.7% in 2010.
- Given the aggressive fiscal consolidation efforts, the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to stabilize by 2012-2013.
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