{"id":4946,"date":"2025-06-26T18:21:17","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T15:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/?p=4946"},"modified":"2025-07-28T13:49:59","modified_gmt":"2025-07-28T10:49:59","slug":"4946-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/4946-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Distribution of Investor Beliefs, Stock Ownership, and Stock Returns"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Journal: Management Science\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Gikas Hardouvelis,a,b Georgios Karalas,c Dimitri Vayanosb,d,e,*<\/em><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">a Department of Finance, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, Greece; b Centre for Economic Policy Research, 75007 Paris, France;<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">c Independent Researcher; d National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; eDepartment of Finance,<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">London School of Economics, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">*Corresponding author<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Contact: ghardouv@unipi.gr (GH); karalas.georgios@gmail.com (GK); d.vayanos@lse.ac.uk, https:\/\/orcid.org\/0000-0002-0944-4914 (DV)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>We study the relationship between the distribution of investor beliefs, the breadth of ownership, and expected returns in a model where stocks differ in the intensity of disagreement<br \/>\nand in the extent to which beliefs are polarized, as measured by the number of optimists and pessimists relative to moderates. Polarization explains the size-dependent relationship<br \/>\nbetween breadth and expected returns that we find empirically: positive for large stocks and negative for small stocks. We also find empirical support for the underlying mechanism:<br \/>\npolarized stocks earn lower expected returns and are held more broadly if small and less broadly if large.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1287\/mnsc.2022.02027\">https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1287\/mnsc.2022.02027<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Journal: Management Science\u00a0 Gikas Hardouvelis,a,b Georgios Karalas,c Dimitri Vayanosb,d,e,* a Department of Finance, University of Piraeus, 18534 Piraeus, Greece; b<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4949,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[3251],"yst_prominent_words":[606,48,335,28,1174,3079,51,170,336],"class_list":["post-4946","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-academic-publications","tag-academic-publications"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4946"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4962,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4946\/revisions\/4962"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4949"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4946"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4946"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=4946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}