{"id":2559,"date":"2018-04-18T18:36:29","date_gmt":"2018-04-18T15:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/?p=2559"},"modified":"2023-10-26T18:33:39","modified_gmt":"2023-10-26T15:33:39","slug":"economic-policy-uncertainty-political-uncertainty-and-the-greek-economic-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/economic-policy-uncertainty-political-uncertainty-and-the-greek-economic-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty and the Greek Economic Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-el\">\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 <a href=\"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2559\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-en\" title=\"English\">English<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p><p><strong>Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty and the Greek Economic Crisis<\/strong><br \/>\nGikas A. Hardouvelis, Georgios I. Karalas, Dimitrios I. Karanastasis, Panagiotis K. Samartzis<br \/>\n<em>April 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<h3>Abstract:<\/h3>\n<p>We use textual analysis to construct an index of economic policy uncertainty<br \/>\n(EPU) for Greece from 1\/1998 to 12\/2017, similar to other international EPU indices.<br \/>\nWe also construct indices of political uncertainty (POLU) and economic uncertainty<br \/>\n(EU), plus EPU sub-indices related to fiscal policy (EPUF), monetary policy (EPUM),<br \/>\nbanking (EPUB), currency or Grexit possibility (EPUC), and pension policy (EPUP).<br \/>\nThe indices are positively correlated yet retain substantial idiosyncratic variability.<br \/>\nWith the exception of EPUM, they all rose during the international and subsequent<br \/>\nGreek crisis. There is also positive correlation of EPU with international EPU indices,<br \/>\nwhich rose in the international crisis but, as expected, declined during the Greek<br \/>\ncrisis.<br \/>\nPositive shocks to EPU and to the other indices are associated with a<br \/>\nsubsequent decline in investment, industrial production, GDP, employment,<br \/>\nhousehold deposits, economic sentiment and the stock market, and with an increase in<br \/>\nbond yields. These shocks go a long way to explain not only the direction but the<br \/>\nmagnitude of the changes in macro and financial variables during the crisis. A VAR<br \/>\nforecast error variance decomposition over a three-year horizon suggests uncertainty<br \/>\ntogether with bond yields may explain not only the depth but the length of the crisis as<br \/>\nwell.<\/p>\n<p>Keywords: Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty, Economic<br \/>\nUncertainty, Macro-economy, Greece, Grexit, Debt Crisis, Banking<br \/>\nCrisis, Pension Crisis, Tax Uncertainty, Fiscal Crisis, Currency Crisis,<br \/>\nBond Spreads, Economic Depression<br \/>\nJEL Classification: D80, E50, E66, G18<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3155172\">Download from SSRN<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 English. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3267,6],"tags":[3261],"yst_prominent_words":[],"class_list":["post-2559","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publications","category-working-papers","tag-working-papers"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2559","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2559"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2559\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4451,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2559\/revisions\/4451"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2559"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2559"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2559"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=2559"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}