{"id":1144,"date":"1983-05-02T13:25:41","date_gmt":"1983-05-02T10:25:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/?p=1144"},"modified":"2023-08-03T18:48:33","modified_gmt":"2023-08-03T15:48:33","slug":"commodity-prices-overshooting-money-surprises-fed-credibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/commodity-prices-overshooting-money-surprises-fed-credibility\/","title":{"rendered":"Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-el\">\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 <a href=\"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-en\" title=\"English\">English<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p><p>Authors: Jeffrey A. Frankel, Gikas A. Hardouvelis<br \/>\n<em>Publication: The National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 1121 (Also Reprint No. r0679), May 1983<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Abstract:<br \/>\nThe general price level does not provide a sensitive indicator of\u00a0whether monetary policy is tight or loose, because most prices are sticky.\u00a0Interest rates are free to move, but they are an ambiguous indicator of\u00a0monetary policy: one does not know whether changes in the interest rate are\u00a0due to changes in the expected inflation rate or the real interest rate.<br \/>\nCommodity prices provide the ideal sensitive indicator.\u00a0This paper has two distinct aims. First, a theoretical model of &#8220;over-\u00a0shooting&#8221; in commodity markets is presented. A known change in the money\u00a0supply is shown to cause an instantaneous change in commodity prices that\u00a0is greater than the proportionate change that describes longrun equilibrium.<br \/>\nSecond, we take the occasion of the Fed&#8217;s Friday money supply announcements\u00a0to test the theory. We find that an unexpectedly large money announcement\u00a0causes significant negative reactions in prices of six commodities. This\u00a0supports at once the sticky price or overshooting view, and the notion that\u00a0the market has confidence in the Fed&#8217;s commitment to correct any deviations\u00a0from its money growth targets.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/w1121.pdf\">Download Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 English. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4399,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,6],"tags":[3261],"yst_prominent_words":[769,1953,73,65,1948,725,917,231,739,70,1946,573,128,704,71,920,1947,1950],"class_list":["post-1144","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-academic-publications","category-working-papers","tag-working-papers"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1144"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4446,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1144\/revisions\/4446"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1144"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1144"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1144"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=1144"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}