{"id":1065,"date":"2009-05-02T13:16:28","date_gmt":"2009-05-02T10:16:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/?p=1065"},"modified":"2023-08-02T15:33:33","modified_gmt":"2023-08-02T12:33:33","slug":"fiscal-risks-mount-economy-heads-recession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/fiscal-risks-mount-economy-heads-recession\/","title":{"rendered":"Fiscal risks mount as economy heads for recession"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"qtranxs-available-languages-message qtranxs-available-languages-message-el\">\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 <a href=\"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\" class=\"qtranxs-available-language-link qtranxs-available-language-link-en\" title=\"English\">English<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p><p>Authors: G. Hardouvelis, P. Monokroussos, C. Vorlow<br \/>\n<em>Publication: Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank Research, May 2009<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Domestic economic activity is expected to decelerate further this year, weighed down by tighter credit conditions and a significant deterioration in global growth dynamics. We now forecast real GDP growth to contract by 1.0% YoY in 2009, mainly as a result of lower investment spending and rapidly decelerating, though still marginally positive, consumer-spending growth<\/li>\n<li>On a less negative note, certain country-specific cyclical and structural drivers may, to a certain extent, act as buffers to global contagion, allowing the Greek economy to maintain a significant growth differential relative to more developed euro area peers. Among other factors these may include: i. support to household disposable incomes from real wage gains and lower domestic inflation ii. less susceptibility to the international-trade channel relative to other, more industrialized countries iii. a more rigorous implementation of the New Investment Law e.g. via an acceleration of PPP projects and an increase in the absorption rates of EU structural funds and iv. a further significant deceleration in the growth of imports of goods and services this year, which should help mitigate the negative impact of lower exports growth on domestic GDP<\/li>\n<li>National headline CPI is likely to retreat to sub-1% YoY levels in MayJuly, before edging higher thereafter, as oil price-related base influences come into effect. For the year as a whole, we forecast average inflation of just 1.1% YoY vs.4.4% YoY in 2008<\/li>\n<li>The 3.7%-of-GDP (revised) official target for the general government budget deficit this year appears overly-optimistic and we now forecast a deficit outcome in excess of 6.0%-of-GDP. This mainly reflects our significantly-worse-than-officially-expected forecast for real GDP growth this year and concerns over the adequacy of a multitude special revenue-gen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/MMMay122009.pdf\">Download Fiscal risks mount as economy heads for recession pdf<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0395\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b8\u03ad\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03b7 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 English. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4399,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,13],"tags":[3252,3253],"yst_prominent_words":[364,1688,840,111,1886,1683,1758,693,72,180,1896,1674,1894,1759,1755,1895,1082,1241,1753],"class_list":["post-1065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economic-analysis","category-greece","tag-applied-research","tag-efarmosmeni-ereuna"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1065"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1067,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1065\/revisions\/1067"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1065"},{"taxonomy":"yst_prominent_words","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/hardouvelis.gr\/el\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/yst_prominent_words?post=1065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}